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This program allows you to simulate the forecast calculation, so that you can see what the forecast will look like in the future periods for an item/warehouse combination.
You choose a forecast method and parameters to use, and then decide what period you want to recalculate forecast from. You can choose any historical period or the present forecast period. The system will recalculate the forecast from the period you choose so that you can see the effect of changing values in the forecast calculation.
The default values on the panel are the production methods and parameters for the item/warehouse combination.
Note: The calculations you make here do not result in an update of the DC1 Inventory Control system. These calculations are simulated.
- Item
- Enter the item code of the item/warehouse combination for which you want to calculate simulated forecast.
- Warehouse
- Enter the warehouse code of the item/warehouse combination for which you want to calculate simulated forecast.
Forecast simulation (INVD5452)
On this panel you select the method, and establish the parameters that you want to use to calculate the simulated forecast for the item/warehouse combination displayed in the header.
When you access this panel, data from a forecast control code record already exists on the panel. This data is retrieved from Work with forecast control codes for the method and parameters that are active for this item/warehouse combination. The class and keys used for this record are shown in the header. You can change the values displayed on this panel if you want to simulate the forecast using another method and/or parameters.
The forecast simulation is performed when you click Perform simulation on this panel.
Note: The calculations you make here do not result in an update of the DC1 Inventory Control system. These calculations are simulated.
Function keys
| Perform simulation | Perform the simulation. A work file containing the Forecast file records is displayed. Here you can change the actual forecast data for any period to see what effect it has on future periods. |
Select method
Select the method you will use to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination. The three methods that you can choose from are listed below. You can choose only one method.
- Exp smooth
- Indicate if you want to use Exponential smoothing to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
- Moving avg
- Indicate if you want to use Moving average to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
- Frcst copy
- Indicate if you want to use Forecast copy to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
Enter parameters
Enter the parameters needed to calculate the simulated forecast according to the forecast method chosen above. You are required to complete certain fields below, depending on the selected forecast method.
- Alpha value
- Mandatory entry. Enter an alpha value, which must be in the range of 0.01 to 1.00.
- Periods MA
- The number of periods MA must be entered if moving average is selected as the method of forecast. This value represents the number of forecast periods to base the forecast calculation upon.
- Alpha update
- Set to YES if the system automatically updates the alpha value during calculation. If you set to NO, then the alpha value entered in the Min alpha field below is used for this simulation.
- Min alpha
- Mandatory entry if the Alpha update field is YES. Enter the minimum alpha, which must be in the range of 0.01 to 1.00.
- Max alpha
- Mandatory entry if the Alpha update field is YES. Enter the maximum alpha. The maximum alpha must be greater than the minimum alpha. Each time the system calculates a new alpha value, it checks that it is greater than the minimum alpha and less than the maximum alpha.
Enter additional parameters
Several additional parameters are needed for calculating forecast. These parameters are retrieved from DC1 Inventory Control and DC1 Distribution.
- Trend code
- Displays the trend code, but can be changed.
- Season
- Displays the season profile, but can be changed.
- Adj workdays
- Displays the adjust workdays code, but can be changed.
- Auto demand
- Displays the auto adjust demand code, but can be changed.
- Adjust perc
- Displays the auto demand adjustment percentage, but can be changed.
- Workdays/per
- Displays the normal number of workdays per period (from IC control file) and cannot be changed.
- New cust FC
- Indicate if new customer forecast should be retrieved for the item/warehouse combination. The customer forecast is retrieved from the delivery schedule received from the customer, if any.
- Apply method
- Indicate if the simulation should include any possible valid sales method for this item/warehouse combination.
Increase demand
Enter values in the fields below to simulate how a given percentage will affect the forecast. It is possible to simulate a forecast for two period intervals at the same time.
Note: You are not able to run this type of forecast simulation if the Apply method field is YES.
- Fr period 1
- Enter the start period from which the increase/decrease percentage should affect the simulated forecast for the first period interval.
- To period 1
- Enter the end period to which the increase/decrease percentage should affect the simulated forecast for the first period interval.
- Incr perc 1
- Enter a percentage to simulate the effect for the first specified period interval.
- Fr period 2
- Enter the start period from which the increase/decrease percentage should affect the simulated forecast for the second period interval.
- To period 2
- Enter the end period to which the increase/decrease percentage should affect the simulated forecast for the second period interval.
- Incr perc 2
- Enter a percentage to simulate the effect for the second specified period interval.
Forecast simulation (INVD5453)
This panel displays a work file which is a copy of the Forecast file for this item/warehouse combination. It contains the future forecast periods for one year, and historical forecast periods for one or two years, depending on how you defined the History, no of years field in the IC control file.
The periods are listed in descending period order. Both passed, current and future periods are displayed, and a cursor is positioned at the current period. The future periods contain forecast information for each period. The historical forecast periods and the present forecast period contain the actual demand value for each item/warehouse and the forecast information for each period.
The purpose of this routine is to allow you to change forecast data for certain forecast period(s) and simulate the forecast calculation to see what effect the changes you make have on the Forecast file, and specifically on the forecast error. Any changes you make here (such as demand adjustments or changing forecast manually) do not affect the actual Forecast file, but will affect this simulation.
In the subfile you can see the MAD value, representing the size of the forecast error up until the present period.
When you first enter this panel the forecast is calculated from the present period and for all future periods, using the methods and parameters you have defined on the previous panel.
Once you are on this panel you can recalculate the forecast from any historical period, making manual demand adjustments, seasonal changes, etc., to analyse the effect of doing so.
Function keys
| Shift info | Toggle between viewing:
|
| Rec frm mark line | Select a line and select this function key to tell the system from where you want to recalculate forecast. You can choose any historical period or the present period. The system recalculates the values in the period you choose and continues through all future periods. Note: You cannot recalculate, starting with a future forecast period. Furthermore, you are not permitted to recalculate the forecast starting with the very oldest period, since this period has no history on which to base the forecast. |
Selection fields
- Item
- Displays the code and description that identify the item.
- Warehouse
- Displays the warehouse of the item.
- Unit
- Displays the item unit, but can be changed.
- Period
- Displays the forecast period number (within the year).
- Desc
- Displays the description of the forecast period.
- Forecast
- Displays the calculated period forecast in stock units.
- Demand
- Displays the demand value for this item/warehouse combination for this period. This value is retrieved from the Sales order cycle. It is the actual demand, not consumption that is updated. In the case of item substitutions, demand is updated for the original item requested. The period to which demand is posted is decided from the order line requested date.
- Adjustment
- Displays the demand adjustment.
- MAD
- Displays the calculated mean absolute deviation (MAD) for this item/warehouse combination. It is used in calculating forecast error, which in turn is used in calculating the safety stock level. The closer this value is to zero, the more accurate the forecast.
Forecast simulation (INVD5455)
On this panel, you can maintain forecast information and demand statistics for the item/warehouse combination displayed in the header. Note: The information you change here does not result in an update of the system.
Function keys
- Item
- Displays the code and description that identify the item.
- Warehouse
- Displays the warehouse of the item.
- Forecast period
- Displays the forecast period number and description.
- Unit
- Displays the item unit.
- Period forecast
- Displays the calculated period forecast in stock unit. This value is the sum of:
Customer forecast, Dependent forecast (not shown on this panel) and Base forecast
- Demand
- Displays the demand value for this item/warehouse combination for this period. This value is retrieved from the Sales order cycle. It is the actual demand, not consumption that is updated into this field. The period to which demand is posted is decided from the order line requested date. This field cannot be changed.
- Demand adjustment (+/-)
- Enter a manual demand adjustment (+ or -) if you entered NO in field Auto adjust demand in the IC control file. If you entered YES in field Auto adjust demand, you are not permitted to enter a value here.
- Base forecast
- Displays the calculated period forecast in stock units. You can change the forecast for this simulation.
- Net demand
- Displays the net demand. If a manual demand adjustment has been made, the value in this field equals Demand (+ or -) Demand adjustment. The value here cannot be negative. Net demand is used for calculating forecast for the next forecast period. You cannot change this field.
- Customer forecast
- Displays the Customer forecast in stock unit. This value is retrieved from the delivery schedule received from the customer, if any.
- Total demand
- Displays the total demand for the item/warehouse period. Note: This value includes demand that does not affect the forecast calculation. The demand value that is the base of the forecast calculation is retrieved from the Net demand field.
- Level forecast
- Displays the calculated level forecast in stock units. If you have activated the trend forecast function in the Inventory management item file for this item/warehouse combination, this field contains a level forecast value. You can change the level forecast for this simulation.
- Trend forecast
- Displays the calculated trend forecast, if you have activated the trend forecast function in the Inventory management item file for this item/warehouse combination. You can change this value for the simulation.
- Mean absolute dev
- This field contains the calculated mean absolute deviation (MAD) for this item/warehouse combination. It is used in calculating forecast error, which in turn is used in calculating the safety stock level. The closer this value is to zero, the more accurate the forecast. You can change this value for the simulation.
- Mean relative dev
- Displays the calculated mean relative deviation (MRD) for this item/warehouse combination. It is used in calculating forecast error, which in turn is used in calculating the safety stock level. The closer this value is to zero, the more accurate the forecast. You can change this value for the simulation.
- Alpha value
- Displays the alpha value for this item/warehouse combination. If manual alpha is used this value will be the same as the alpha value specified in Work with forecast control codes for all forecast periods. But if automatic alpha update is used, this field will contain the calculated alpha value. You can change alpha value for the simulation.
- Adjust workdays
- Only used for informational purposes. Indicates if you chose to adjust workdays for this item/warehouse combination in the Inventory management item file. YES means that the system adjusts the forecast according to the actual number of workdays in the period instead of using the average number of workdays per period, which was established in the IC control file. This field cannot be changed.
- No of workdays
- Only used for informational purposes. Displays the actual number of workdays for this period, retrieved from the active Forecast file.
- Trend code
- Only used for informational purposes. Indicates if this item/warehouse combination is analysed for trend. This code is retrieved from the Inventory management item file.
- Season profile
- Only used for informational purposes. Displays a season profile from the Inventory management item file, if one has been assigned to this item/warehouse combination.
- Season index
- Only used for informational purposes. Displays the season index (per period) for the season profile above.
- Increase percentage
- Displays the percentage that was entered on the previous panel.
- Sales promotion
- Estimated % increase
- Note: The estimated value can be maintained on the Work with sales promotions, Forecast details panel.
- Actual % increase
- Estimated qty inc
- Note: The estimated value can be maintained on the Work with sales promotions, Forecast details panel.
- Actual qty increase
- Production demand
- Only applicable for produced items. This field shows the production demand for the item. The production demand comes from the item, which is part of a manufacturing order structure and is related to the quantity required.
- Production movements
- Only applicable for produced items. Displays the number of movements for an item in production demand, i.e., the total number of production orders where the item is included.
- Speculation inv
- Displays the speculation inventory that is inlcuded in the forecast calculation. The speculation inventory is defined in the demand plan and this type of forecast is used for introduction of new products.
- Additional forecast
- Only shown if DC1 Demand plan is installed and activated. Displays the forecast quantity that is retrieved from a demand plan of type Additional forecast. This quantity is included in the Period forecast.