One major problem when calculating forecast is accounting for the seasonal demand patterns that often exist. The season profile gives you the ability to handle seasonal demand by assigning weights to each forecast period in a year. This means that you can assign large season weights to the periods where sales (of an item or items) are higher than normal. Alternatively, you can assign low season weights to the periods where sales are lower than normal. See section Season index calculation for more information.
Creation
Season profiles can be created in the following ways:
- You can create a season profile in Work with season profiles. This is described in Create a season profile.
- You can create and update a profile through the Season profile analysis/update report. See About working with inventory analysis for more information.
Activation
When the season profile has been created and you have assigned weights, you activate the profile by connecting it to the item/warehouse combinations in the Item/Warehouse file that fit the profile. This can be done in the following ways:
- You can activate the profile manually for one specific item in the Item file. This is described in Activate a season profile.
- You can activate the profile for a selection of items using the fast update function. See About working with fast updates for more information.
- You can create and update a profile through the Season profile analysis/update report. See About working with inventory analysis for more information.
Season index calculation
This section illustrates how weight can be assigned to periods in a season profile.
There are six periods per year and the relative weights are as follows:
| Period | Weight |
|---|---|
| 1 | 125 |
| 2 | 49 |
| 3 | 7 |
| 4 | 110 |
| 5 | 188 |
| 6 | 201 |
| Total weight | 750 |
| Average weight (Average weight = Total weight/number of periods) |
125 |
The average weight is used when the season index is calculated (Season index = period weight/average weight):
| Period | Period weight | Average weight | Season index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 125 | 125 | 1.00000 |
| 2 | 49 | 125 | 0.39200 |
| 3 | 7 | 125 | 0.61600 |
| 4 | 110 | 125 | 0.88000 |
| 5 | 188 | 125 | 1.50400 |
| 6 | 201 | 125 | 1.60800 |
The season index is used in two steps in the forecast calculation:
- The season index values are used to remove the season effect from all historical demand data, making it normalised data. The forecast calculation is performed on the normalised data, yielding a normalised forecast.
- Finally, the season index for the current forecast period is applied to the normalised forecast to get a forecast including the season adjustment.
See Inventory control formulas for more details.
Enquiries and printouts
- Season profile enquiry
- Season profile printout